Growing satellite industry is good news for new business opportunities, fast-paced innovations and more reliable services, but bad news for space sustainability.
Even though the global space industry grew at a moderate rate of 4 percent in 2021, for the fourth consecutive year a record number of commercial satellites were launched in the orbit, according to the State of the Satellite Industry report from the Satellite Industry Association (SIA) released the last week.
A record 1,713 commercial satellites were launched during the year, an increase of more than 40 percent as compared to 2020. This is directly in line with the steady decline in costs for satellite manufacturing and launches. Launch services saw significant growth – 8 percent in revenue in 2021 to USD 5.7 billion as 2021 witnessed a historic high number of launches.
While all this may sound as music to some ears — not only the satellite industry but also global economy given the benefits associated with space-based services — the rapidly increasing numbers of satellites orbiting Earth directly points to an increasing threat of spacecraft damage, which could further lead to catastrophic collisions.
According to the SIA report, there are a total of 4,852 satellites orbiting the Earth at the end of 2021. This is an increase of 179 percent over the past five years!
Latest estimates from the European Space Agency (ESA) reveals that there are more than 30,000 pieces of debris flying around the Earth, which are regularly tracked by space surveillance networks. However, what is alarming is that there are probably over 1 million objects larger than 1 cm in size which are not even tracked!
On June 16, the International Space Station had to conduct an unscheduled manoeuvre to steer clear off a piece of space junk from the anti-satellite weapons (ASAT) test conducted by Russia last November. The ISS has been under increasing pressure to dodge flying debris. Only last year, its robotic arm, called Canadarm, vital for transfer of cargo and release of satellites from the ISS, suffered a damage when it was struck by a piece of space junk.
Between 1998 and 2022, the ISS, had to make at least 30 maneuvers to avoid collisions. Besides the threat of damage and possible loss of lives, the cost of any maneuver adds to fuel cost and operational complexity, while shortening lifespan of spacecraft.
While satellites have become a necessity for modern civilization to function, to avoid a calamity in space, and possibly a Kessler Syndrome kind of an end result, it is imperative we pay attention sustainability of space. This begins with an outright ban on ASAT tests. The next in the list should be taking up on-orbit servicing on a priority, possibly supported by national space policies and national space agencies. This also involves international standards for satellite servicing.
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Collaboration for space sustainability
There exist multilateral UN provisions, such as the 1967 Outer Space Treaty and the 2019 Guidelines for the Long-term Sustainability of Outer Space Activities, but so far, they have only provided high-level guidance.
In 2021, the G7 Leaders’ Summit agreed to make space junk problem a priority in order to ensure future sustainable use of space, and also agreed that there was an urgent need to stabilize global space operations. The year also saw the UN setting up a dedicated group to develop new norms of international behavior in space, making it the first significant progress in developing space rules in more than four decades.
And yet the world witnessed the dangerous ASAT test conducted by Russia in November, which, as per the US Space Command, created more than 1,500 pieces of trackable orbital debris and possibly hundreds of thousands of smaller fragments. One of the pieces from this test threatened to strike the ISS in June had Roscosmoss not performed the unscheduled maneuver.
In April this year, the United States announced that it was imposing a unilateral ban on ASAT tests and sought to establish this as a new international norm for responsible behavior in space.
The inaugural meeting of the UN working group in May saw delegations from some 50 countries coming together to discuss the threats to space activities, including ASAT tests and weaponizing of space technologies. The meeting also witnessed Canada announcing its decision to join the US pledge. Later in the month, ESA and the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs issued a joint statement in Paris aimed at strengthening their long-standing efforts related to space debris.
All this is a good beginning. But the space debris problem is so bad that it would continue to be a “formidable problem” even if legally binding international guidelines were set and were 100 percent complied, a new Pentagon report states.
The report also notes there are approximately 1,300 pieces of debris larger than a car, and these objects pass each other at a close distance dangerously often. Some pass within 1 km of each other monthly at a speed of 10-15 km per second.
A collision with any of these pieces can damage or even destroy a satellite, crewed spacecraft, or even the ISS.
As we explore business opportunities in the space economy, we must keep in mind debris removal and collision avoidance go hand-in-hand to ensure safe space activities. Exploitation of space resources for future generations will depend on how we manage them now.
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Disclaimer: Views Expressed are Author's Own. Geospatial World May or May Not Endorse it
