In the aftermath of the damning IPCC assessment report, it becomes evidently clear that curtailing climate change is the biggest challenge for all realizing all sustainability parameters, and ensuring a renewable transition.
Profligate use of Earth’s limited resources has shown that unlimited and untrammeled development is not an option if the Earth has to survive as a livable planet. The United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development in 2012 agreed to a set of seventeen sustainable development goals, adopted in 2015 by the UN.
These goals would give the earth a chance to revive and achieve a state of environmental balance and help in achieving an equitable global socio-economic development by 2030.
One of the fallouts of the development route followed by many countries has resulted in the steady warming of the earth, causing the climate to change.
The World Meteorological Organization, a body affiliated with the UN marked climate change as an effect of anthropogenic activity. It established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC in 1988. IPCC continues to monitor the effects of climate change, builds possible future scenarios as the climate warms, and suggests mitigation measures.
Climate change and sustainable development are closely intertwined. The best approaches to counter climate change are largely those activities that may ensure overall sustainability. On the other hand, ignoring these practices will only accelerate climate change and lead to irreversible adverse impacts on civil society, the economy, and the environment.
The Implications
Two notable points emerge from the recently released sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC One, the emissions in 2019 were 12% higher than in 2010 indicating a rapid increase in Green House Gases (GHG). Second, the possibility of limiting the temperature rise to 1.5 Celsius in the period 2030-2035 to ensure a net zero emission by 2050 looks bleak. The emissions calculated from the Nationally Determined Contributions and corresponding policies show that the temperature rise will remain in the range of 2.2 to 3.5 °C in 2030.
Another study by Pennsylvania State University using a data-driven AI approach shows that a 1.5 °C rise will be achieved soon “even if the climate forcing pathway is substantially reduced in the near term” and that “a high probability of reaching the 2 °C threshold by mid-century in the High, Intermediate, and Low scenarios, suggesting that even with substantial greenhouse gas mitigation, there is still a possibility of failing to achieve the UN Paris goal of holding global warming well below the 2 °C threshold”.
Net Zero
As implied by the Nationally Declared Contributions and the implemented policies, the mean GHG loading in the atmosphere as of 2020, was 57 Giga tons of equivalent carbon dioxide per year (GtCO2-eq/ yr). There is a gap of 7 GtCO2-eq/yr already concerning the 2030 target. As of 2020, the analysis shows that the gap increases to 6-14 GtCO2-eq/ yr if the rise is to be limited to 2 °C and 16-23 GtCO2-eq/yr if the limit is set to 1.5 °C to be able to achieve the goal of 2030.
In percentage terms existing policies will result in an increase of GHG by 4%. If a situation of high overshoot is accepted followed by a restriction to 2 °C or 1.5 °C, it will result in a 4% decrease in GHG but strong and immediate action from now onwards to limit the rise to 2 °C will need a reduction of 26% of GHG. The corresponding figure for 1.5 °C is 43%.
The goal of controlling global warming is to achieve net zero emissions of GHG globally. This implies that there will be some emitters and some absorbers of GHG. If the world succeeds to limit the temperature rise to 1.5 °C by restricting GHG load to 34 GtCO2-eq/yr the net zero CO2 will be achieved by 2050 but other GHGs will take up to another 50 years (2100) but Methane will still be present. The corresponding picture if the limit is set to 2 °C will be a maximum GHG loading of 43 GtCO2-eq/yr with net zero CO2 by 2070, other GHGs, mainly methane and nitrous oxide from agriculture, will last beyond 2100.
Pathways to Mitigation
The IPCC report also looks at ways to reach net zero. As of 2019, the major contributors to GHG were about 20 GtCO2-eq/yr by transport, industry, and buildings, another 16 GtCO2-eq/yr by energy supply, about 15 GtCO2-eq/ yr from non-CO2 sources and 5 GtCO2-eq/yr from land use change and forestry.
With the best of measures, Net Zero may be achieved by 2030 only for optimized land use changes and control of deforestation. One of the major causes of global warming, energy supply will achieve net zero only after 2050 while the other cause, transport, industry, and buildings, will most probably achieve net zero only by 2100.
Several illustrative mitigation pathways can help in achieving net zero. A less rapid introduction of mitigation measures followed by a subsequent gradual strengthening can limit the warming to only 2 °C but a high reliance on pathways such as net negative emissions, high resource efficiency, and a focus on sustainable development or renewables can help to limit warming to 1.5°C.
It is important to note that the sustainable development route shows the best results in the long term with emissions falling to under 10 GtCO2-eq/yr and emission sinks absorbing another 5 GtCO2-eq/yr.
Climate Change and SDGs
Currently, the global community recognizes the urgent need to address climate change and promote sustainable development, and these issues are a central focus of international efforts, such as the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement on climate change. Sustainable Development hinges on effective action to limit climate change. Climate Change in turn looks at sustainable development as the best way to achieve the 1.5-degree target for global warming.
The Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, is a global agreement aimed at limiting global temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C. The agreement sets out national targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and provides a framework for international cooperation and support to help countries achieve their targets.
The two means of climate-resilient global sustainable development are adaptation and mitigation. While mitigation is a short-term activity, adaptation is a long-term effort.
The IPCC SYR AR6 report points out that, “Accelerated implementation of adaptation will improve well-being by reducing losses and damages, especially for vulnerable populations. Deep, rapid, and sustained mitigation actions would reduce future adaptation costs and losses, and damages, enhancing sustainable development co-benefits, and reducing irreversible climate changes. These near-term actions involve higher up-front investments and disruptive changes, which can be moderated by a range of enabling conditions and removal or reduction of barriers to feasibility.”
While factors like cost might tempt implementations to seek a tradeoff between mitigation and adaptation, an approach that looks at synergies between the two to advance sustainable development may yield better results in the long run. Though tradeoffs are in some cases unavoidable, an integrated approach using both synergies and tradeoffs using the SDG as a template is shown in the figure.
There have been several successes in advancing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) while also addressing climate change. A few examples are:
Renewable Energy: The expansion of renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power has been one of the major successes in the fight against climate change. In 2020, renewable energy accounted for almost 75% of new power capacity additions globally, indicating that the transition to clean energy is gaining momentum. This shift has helped to reduce carbon emissions and improve air quality, while also supporting SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy).
Sustainable Agriculture: Another area where progress has been made in addressing climate change is sustainable agriculture. Farmers are adopting practices that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase carbon sequestration, such as no-till farming, crop rotation, and cover cropping. These practices also improve soil health, enhance biodiversity, and support SDG 2 (Zero Hunger).
Sustainable Transportation: The transition to sustainable transportation is another success story. Electric vehicles are becoming more affordable and accessible, and cities are investing in public transportation systems that run on clean energy. This shift not only reduces emissions but also reduces air pollution and supports SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities).
Sustainable Finance: The financial sector is also playing a crucial role in advancing the SDGs while addressing climate change. Sustainable finance is becoming mainstream, with more investors considering environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors in their investment decisions. This shift is helping to direct more capital towards sustainable projects and initiatives, supporting SDG 13 (Climate Action) and SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals).
These are just a few examples of how progress is being made in addressing climate change while also advancing the SDGs. It is important to note that there is still a long way to go in achieving these goals, and continued efforts and investments are needed to ensure a sustainable future for all.
What more needs to be done to mitigate climate change effects on SDGs?
Accelerate the transition to clean energy: The world needs to rapidly transition to clean, renewable energy sources and away from fossil fuels. This requires bold policy decisions and investment in clean energy infrastructure, as well as public awareness campaigns to encourage the adoption of clean energy technologies.
Implement sustainable land use practices: Agriculture and deforestation are major drivers of greenhouse gas emissions. Implementing sustainable land use practices, such as agroforestry, conservation agriculture, and reforestation, can help mitigate the effects of climate change while also supporting food security and biodiversity.
Invest in climate resilience: Climate change is already causing devastating impacts, such as extreme weather events, sea level rise, and food insecurity. It is essential to invest in climate resilience measures, such as early warning systems, improved infrastructure, and disaster risk reduction strategies.
Support sustainable urbanization: Cities are major sources of greenhouse gas emissions, but they also offer opportunities for sustainable development. Supporting sustainable urbanization, such as through public transportation, green buildings, and waste reduction initiatives, can help reduce emissions while also improving quality of life.
Strengthen international cooperation: Climate change is a global problem that requires global solutions. Countries need to work together to reduce emissions, share best practices, and provide support to vulnerable countries and communities.
Courtesy: Taken from page no 65 of Synthesis Report of The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report
Issues for Implementation
Despite global efforts, progress toward sustainable development and addressing climate change remains uneven. Many countries are still heavily reliant on fossil fuels and high-carbon industries, and the impacts of climate change are already being felt in many regions, including more frequent and severe natural disasters, rising sea levels, and loss of biodiversity.
Some of the worrying aspects of events that pose a challenge to the efforts of reducing global warming are related to current events. The war in Ukraine has resulted in the disruption of energy supplies. Europe is planning to reopen coal-based power generating stations.
Despite the best efforts, the oceans have not been able to meet the sustainable development goals. 14% of the coral reefs, called the rainforest of the seas, have already been lost. 17 million metric tonnes of plastics are already in the oceans and are threatening marine life. Eutrophication due to excess nutrient pollution has increased dead zones to 700. Oceans-based actions can contribute 20% to the reduction of GHG by 2050.
Another conundrum is in the energy sector. Replacing coal and oil-based power will require the mining of a huge number and amount of minerals. For example, to meet the 2-degree limit, the demand for lithium needed for energy systems will rise by 2050 to 488% of the amount mined up to 2018. Mining activities produce enormous amounts of GHG, require high volumes of water, and may add to the pollution of water and air, and land.
Add to these other minerals such as cobalt, nickel, etc needed for various alternative energy systems and the picture becomes more complicated. Most of these minerals are located in politically unstable countries which may already be under severe unsustainable developmental stress. Many minerals are located in a single country. For example, China produces 96.67% of the world’s Gallium which is needed in the semiconductor industry.
Conclusion
There is a long haul ahead. Analysis shows that time is running out for the world in terms of mitigation, adaptation, and trade-offs for climate justice. The effects on sustainable development have been well documented and the synergy between the two is clear. Climate justice will aid Sustainable Development and vice versa. There are major issues.
While small island countries like Grenada have created a Digital Twin to help assist their actions, larger and poor countries, may not find the going that easy. The cost of implementation is a major issue. The triad of government, civil sector, and industry have to work together to find and implement solutions specific to each country.
In the end, it is all about social equity, justice, and sustainability of the environment and people. Development cannot stop but reduced options for development and degradation of the ecosystem are not acceptable.
To mitigate the effects of climate change on the SDGs, a comprehensive and coordinated approach is needed that involves government, business, civil society, and individuals. This will require significant investment and effort, but the benefits of a more sustainable and resilient future will be well worth it.
