Home Natural Hazard Management Researcher predicts magnitude-9 earthquake in Kashmir

Researcher predicts magnitude-9 earthquake in Kashmir

Srinagar, India: Roger Bilham of Colorado University predicted a magnitude-9 earthquake in Kashmir Valley. The US professor claimed that his observation is based-on the new GPS data readings which revealed gradual movement of rocks in the Zanskar mountains north of the valley. Bilham has, however, put no timeframe for his predictions.

According to Bilham, the major earthquake in Kashmir can trigger landslides which would dam the Jhelum river and plunge the valley under water. The prediction also said that once released, the waters would cause major floods in Pakistan.

In its typical doomsday forecast, the study warned, “The zone would rupture when a quake eventually happens. The quake would be 200 kilometres wide as against 80 kilometres predicted earlier.”

“If slippage occurs over a length of 300 kilometres, as is possible, a mega quake of magnitude-9 is likely to occur. Given building codes and population in the region, it could mean a death toll of 300,000 people,” the study added.

Commenting on Bilham’s study, M.I. Bhat, a senior geologist in Srinagar, said, “Earlier we believed that the Kashmir Valley was vulnerable to destruction from quakes generated along the Pir Panchal mountain range. But with availability of the GPS data from the region, it is now evident that the northeastern side of the valley is more vulnerable to earthquake generation than the Pir Panchal range.”

Source: Deccan Herald