Weather forecasts would dramatically get better for storms up to 15 hours in advance allowing accurate prediction of a storm’s path, intensity and timing better than ever.
Geoffrey Manikin, a meteorologist at the weather service's Environmental Modeling Center said, “The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model has four times more resolution than the old model, and instead of updating every hour, it will update every 15 minutes. Until now, forecasts — not radar — would project storms as green blobs over half a state. The HRRR forecasts will now look more similar to the radar images that people watch as storms arrive.”
The HRRR model begins with a full 3-D image of the atmosphere an hour before the forecast and then pulls in observations from surface stations, satellites, weather balloons and commercial aircrafts to produce a more balanced and detailed starting point for the forecast.
Stan Benjamin, a research meteorologist at NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory who led the research team said, “"Being able to warn the public of weather hazards earlier and with greater detail is an outstanding return from NOAA's investment in research and observation systems."