Oxford Analytica has created a resiliency index to measure the potential health and economic impacts of COVID-19 on countries around the world. The analysts at the geopolitical analysis and advisory firm combined the results of epidemic preparedness from the World Bank’s Global Health Security Index along with their export dependency to create a global map that depicts each country’s health resiliency and economic impacts of COVID-19. Countries in blue are both highly prepared for health pandemics and highly exposed to exports, while countries in red are both less prepared and exposed to trade. All COVID-19 updates will be displayed in a red box.
What does the map depict?
The correlation gives interesting insights into a country’s economic preparedness to fight the pandemic, how their economies could be impacted and also how likely and quickly they can recover. For instance, Germany and South Korea are ranked highly among nations in epidemic preparedness, while their economies are reliant on trade, thus making them vulnerable to supply chain disruptions once the virus had receded. Countries like Libya and Mozambique are at a higher risk of negative impacts, due to their low preparedness on health front coupled with high trade exposure, while Bangladesh and Pakistan are under prepared to deal with COVID, but their trade exposure is also relatively low. A country like Australia is more resilient because of high epidemic combat preparedness coupled with lower reliance on exports.
Going forward, supply chains will be slower than many domestic sectors to recover because they are more likely to encounter bottlenecks as different countries remove travel and business restrictions at different rates. Countries reliant on trade, including South Korea and Germany, will be vulnerable to disruption long after the virus passes.
While predictive data analysis can be helpful for global leaders as they prepare for the post-pandemic economic impact, actual responses to the virus will vary, and trade impacts are often difficult to forecast.
What is Global Health Security Index?
The Global Health Security Index was launched in October 2019 by World Bank, which ranks 195 countries on the basis of their preparedness to fight the outbreak of an infectious. Interestingly, Italy, which otherwise ranks number 2 on public health facilities, scored relatively low on the index, as did a whole lot of European countries that are otherwise known for their health facilities. So did Japan, which recently declared Emergency to tackle the COVID-19 outbreak.
The GHS Index assesses countries’ health security and capabilities across six categories, 34 indicators, and 85 sub-indicators. The findings are drawn from open source information that answered 140 questions across the categories.
The full report offers 33 recommendations to address the gaps identified by the index.
Impacts of COVID-19
The Oxford Analytica has highlighted the following as major pain areas where COVID-19 could have impact:
- COVID-19 is a supply shock; stimulus will cushion business activity but spending and rate cuts will be slow to aid complex supply chains.
- Global cooperation in areas such as data sharing will be key to preparations, but fear and weak GDP growth may prompt more nationalism.
- In China, fiscal and monetary stimulus will mitigate the impact of the virus on growth and jobs, reducing the risk of political unrest.