Therotic Foundation of Dynavic (Reasonance) Earthquake Model
Kasumov F. K., Asianov F. A.
Azerbaijan National Airspace Agency (ANASA), Baku, Azerbaijan
Latest achievement of space science [1-14] allows us to apply a non-traditional non-standard approach to the problem of earthquakes both to explain mechanism of precursors generation and implementation of reliable forecast, as well as to build resonance theory of earthquakes emerging. Suggested dynamic (resonance) mechanism, theory of the Sun-Earth perturbances (SEP), earthquake focus model 9see Fig. 5) [1-7] allow us to devise the algorithm to calculate trigger mechanism and to execute reliable forecast of earthquakes.
Besides, model of multi-layer condenser [1-7] which explains mechanism of earthquake focus excitation and operation of the system ionosphere-lithosphere-Earth core allows us not only to forecast, control and prevent earthquakes, but also to understand mechanism of seismic energy “input” and “output” to the subsurface [1,2]. Control of mechanism of tectonic strains transformation into electric static energy and its output from the earthquake focus by means of discharge prior to its initiation can enable us to prevent earthquakes.
Generation of seismic energy output from the earthquake focus can be subsequently used as environmentally clean cheap electric power which is must more competitive in the market than atomic and thermonuclear energy. This is the problem of the century to be resolved by all of the mankind who have encountered with environmental problem on the global scale.
Let’s elaborate on theoretic foundation of dynamic (resonance) model [1-7] . We call in dynamic because it is based on dynamics of the Sun-Earth perturbances-SEP which periodically (on cyclic basis) excite the Earth subsurface, prepare and initiate tectonic shocks and expedite earthquakes of technologic origin.
We also call it resonance model because, according to this theory, the trigger mechanism is put into operation due to emergence of resonance situation when oscillations of the Earth coincide with oscillations (impulses of external oscillations) outgoing from the Sun (oscillations of the Sun sphere) which initiates earthquakes [1-7].
The theory has been worked out with principles of mathematical and physical similarity and scale effect taken into consideration. The general theory is basing on following:
- the Sun-Earth perturbances-SEP have been generalized and their model worked out;
- mechanism of earthquake focus and condenser model CM-designed;
- mechanism of resonance situation-RS emergence and trigger mechanism operation – TMO worked out;
- models SEP, CM, RS and TMO generalized, general dynamic resonance theory and models of forecast algorithm (realization of the resonance situation) worked out-CR.
Let’s elaborate on these models and give the model of forecast algorithm. The earthquake model suggested by us [1-7] is built on resonance theory of coincidence of seismic waves of different frequency range with the Earth own oscillations can be successfully realized on the basis of SEP taken into consideration. These reasons initialing earthquakes are as follows:
- maximum of the Sun activity connskted with the coincidence of different cycles;
- tide mechanism, tide force of the Moon and other planets of the Solarsystem;
- coincidence of the Sun-Earth perturbances connected with periods of the Earth revolution round the Sun;
- generation of D-waves, trigger mechanism of excitation of small magnetic fields (of interplanetary medium) ESMMF, emergence of redundant pressure in the atmosphere (big pressures, cyclones in the ionosphere).
Antropogenic technogenic activities of both forms can also encourage earthquakes on the global scale namaley.
- Antropogenic technologenic activities: river beds turning, construction of artificial water reservoirs, intensive development of mineral resources, construction of hydrotechnical facilities: dikes and damps, etc.;
- Artificial subsurfase explosion(nuclear and large-scaleindustrial explosions), rocket launching.
All these reasons can be united in 3 groups
- group A- reasons related to SEP (1.2)
- group B- reasons related to antropogenic activities (5,6)
- group Q- so called “quiet” earthquakes relayed to excitation of small magnetic fields (of inter-planetary medium) or ESMF (3,4).
Every group has its own trigger mechanism of earthquake excitation and initiation, through these mechanisms have much in common. If reasons of groups A and B have been studied to some extent, group Q-quit earthquakes-today are very difficult to forecast, because mechanisms of trigger excitation of small (interplanetary) magnetic fields-ESMF has not been inquired into at all.
If we neglect even one of the above-mentioned reasons, all the earthquake forecast calculation technique will become useless. It is very important to thoroughly study each reason to work out respective calculation technique, to discuss various earthquake scenarios and their trigger mechanisms.
Therotic Foundation of Dynavic (Reasonance) Earthquake Model
1. Trigger Mechanisms Of SED, Reason Of Group A.
In group A we have established correlation between growth and development of the Sun spots-SS on the Sun surfase, the Suncycles and activity and emergence of resonance situation which can cause earthquakes and other natural calamities. Activity of SS, which are kind of craters occurring in the result of plasma substance revolution, plays great role in the mechanism of seismic waves excitation in the system of Sun-Earth relations. In the result of SS revolution seismic waves are focused and the so called Rossby vortices are born. SS act as resonators, exciters and generators of seismic waves [7,9,11].
In the result of coincidence of SS and Earth revolution aces, i.e., these axes become parallel, (Rossby vortices, solitons) seismic waves are intensified and transmitted from the Sun to the Earth through the space medium (the cosmic plasma) due to the so called spin effect. The spin effect can be described as follows: two revolving systems, or spins behave as particles with opposite charges and when coming closer they move apart. Provided that the revolution axes are parallel the spin effect generates cyclones in the atmosphere, and when axes are perpendicular-anti cyclones [7-12]. This is how intensification of the Sun activity and increase of the spots (craters of the plasma clots) revolution speed, in its turn, intensifies seismic excitation of the Earth. To give mathematical description of the seismic waves excitation mechanisms we shall use the model of soliton solution [8-10].
Resonance situation-RS will realize into a calamity of certain type caused by reasons listed in group A only provided that trigger mechanism is put into operation. Precursors of calamities, which forestall and foretoken calamities, are born in the time interval RS-RC. This demands coincidence of 4 independent factors [1-7].
- Sun flashes twisting of magnetic lines of force in Sun spots, generation of shock waves.
- focusing of seismic waves in the Sun spots within 1-10 Hz range;
- coincidence of spots revolution axis with the axis of the Earth revolution, namely, when these axes become parallel (threat of spin effect emergences),
- breakthrough of focused seismic ray through holes and their interaction with IF we accept the summary event probability as a unit, probability of each independent earthquakes seismic focuses.
event is one quarter or 25%. Subsequently, summary probability of simultaneous coincidence and operation of all factors-P equals the product of each of them, or:
P = A*B*C*D = (0.25)4 (1)
Under condition (4) the excitation trigger mechanism-ETM grows into resonance situation RS, with ETM moving towards some ultimate (critical) limit E crit., or%
ETM-RS with TME-E crit (2)
Realization of resonance situation-RS into a concrete calamity- CR is determined by appearing of bifurcation (peculiarity) in the calamity function. According to the theory of calamities , this function equals the sum of 2 functions:
C(l,k) = CG (l) + Pert (l, k)
With C(l, k)= – calamity function
CG (1) – function of calamity growth
Pert (l,k) – function of the calamity perturbance.
So under conditions (1,2,3) ETM aims towards RS, with RS aiming to E crit. RS aims towards RC with ETM equal E crit. Mathematical it can be expressed as:
ETM-RS-RC with ETM = E crit (4)
Besides, these “classical” scenario of earthquake dynamic model with SEP taken into consideration designed by us [1-7], there are at least 2 other trigger mechanisms caused by reasons of groups B and T.
II. Trigger Mechanism of Reasons of Group B
This group of reasons is connected with anthropogenic activities and various mechanisms creating extreme strains in the Earth crust. These strains, in their turn, provoke earthquakes. Trigger mechanism of such calamities is connected wit accumulation of strains in the Earth crust and sudden release of this energy at the strained areas of the earth crust. Process of strains accumulation, especially in the water environment, promotes emergence of soliton wave and its sudden dissipation when is realized into a calamity. In water environment (sea, ocean) this wave provokes tsunami (sea shock). Trigger mechanism of this phenomenon is very complicated and not studied enough. Regardless of this, general method of transition after diagram (4) suggested by us [25, 32, 33] ETM -RS -CR can be successfully applied under condition of through study of trigger excitation of strains in the Earth crust and emergence of precursors connected with antropogenic activities.
III. Trigger Mechanism of Reasons of Group T.
This group is related to delicate process of quantum mechanical character taking place in the cosmic space in the Earth-Sun with trigger mechanism or small (inter-plan) magnetic-ESMF leading to excitation of the seismic waves in the 0.1-0.001 and less Hz frequency range. These ESMF have a number of specific features-they act within wide range of 10 minus 12 to 17 Gauss range. Trigger mechanism of these fields provoke the so called quiet earthquakes.
One of such scenarios seems to cause the so called D-waves which propagate in the Earth crust at a speed of 16.6 km per year. When meeting a tectonic fault these waves self-excite, cause resonance situation and can provoke an earthquake. In non-seismic regions these wave provoke big accidents at industrial facilities. For ex., it has been found out that this trigger mechanism of weak magnetic fields excitation provoked accident at the Chernobyl atomic power station. The accident occurred because trigger mechanism caused displacement of geological plates, which, in its turn6 caused rapture of the pipeline at the atomic station, promoted violation of its operation and the accident [13, 123]. This type of earthquake can be provoked by excessive pressure in the ionosphere which is connected with antropogenic activities (subsurface nuclear explosions, rocket launching), as well as with natural phenomena-emergence of zones with excessive pressure in the ionosphere, impact of weak IMF, etc….
Therotic Foundation of Dynavic (Reasonance) Earthquake Model
Summarizing the above-said, it should be noted that we have designed a summarized logical and mathematical model of earthquakes excited by oscillations outgoing from exterior sources (the Sun, the Earth, other planets of the Solar system, antropogenic activities) and coinciding with the Earth’s own oscillations. The model is given in the Fig.1.
Figure 1: Summarized logical diagram of various calamities emerging and its mathematical model
Fig. 1 has following abbreviations:
Fig. 1 shows that all the reasons together- p can be divided into 3 groups of reasons : A, B and T . Each of the groups has its own excitation trigger mexanism in various mediums- ETMVT. These groups create different variations of resonance situation- Rs which unit concrete scenarios. One of such scenarios, with regards to the group of reasons which has generated it, leads to operation of the trigger mechanism- TMO with all conditions (1, 2, 3, 4) implemented which leads to a calamity realization.
The lower part of the Fig. 1 shows mathematical model – MM based on trigger mechanism theory- TMT, determination of criteria under which ETM grows into resonance situation – RS with the help of theory of calamities -TC.
Fig. 1 also shows conditions of trigger mechanism calculation- TMC which at the same time is the forecast model – FoM with time, location and magnitude of a calamity (after Richter scale) indicated. The forecast is built which calamity precursors – CP taken into consideration
Basing on the logical diagram suggested by us, we give on FIG. 2 aggregate algorithm to built calamity forecast:
Fig. 2. Algorythm of calamity forecast, transformation of trigger mechanism into resonance situation, operation of trigger mechanism, calamity realization.
EME- RS-TMO-CR (5)
This algorithm is introduced into computer memory together with data supplied by both surface and space surveillance net. All these aggregate data is used to give an accurate data is used to give an accurate forecast of natural calamities. Application of this method to build earthquake forecast also demands data on processes going on in the seismic focus due to impact of trigger excitation. In other words, model of earthquake focuses has also be introduced into the above-mentioned logarithm.
Fig. 3 shows the model of multi-layer condenser imitating model of earthquake focus and developed by us [1-7]. Actually this is the model of block massif consisting of 3 major tectonic faults and 3 slanting faults- waveguides which connect, on one side, lithosphere with atmosphere (ionosphere)-the connection from below. Seismic energy is red both from above (the Sun, the Moon and other planets of the Solar system) and from below- the excited core&
Fig. 3. Multi-condenser model
Fig. 3. also represents diagram of earthquake focus model as a multi-layer condenser which explains the ionosphere-lithosphere-Earth core bond.
I-II-III layers (plates) making up the Earth crust, IV- inner mantle, V-core;
1. horizontal major faults;
2.slanting faults- wave guides;
a 1, 2, 3 dip angles of the slanting faults;
*earthquake seismic centers;
arrow a – direction of energy feeding from above (the Sun, the Moon, etc.);
arrow b- direction of response (reflections of the subsurface which exit into the atmosphere (ionosphere) through faults-wave guides (2) generating precursors of future calamities);
arrow c – directions of seismic focus centers energy feeding from below (the Earth core);
arrow d- expansion of the Earth crust by expanding core.
As Fig. 3. shows, seismic energy penetrating the waveguides from above (slanting faults -2) excites the earthquake focuses located on the major faults. Later response waves pass through the same wave guides (arrow b) which generates in the atmosphere ionosphere-space precursors which forestall future calamities.
Earthquake seismic focuses also receive excitation from below- the expanding core moves plates ap art which contributes to the focuses excitation. Response of this core excitation also passes through the waveguides and generates precursors in the ionosphere and near spaca. So Fig. 3. gives a visual representation of ionosphere-lithosphere – core bonds which offers explanation of earthquake emergence mechanism. With mechanisms of earthquake focus excitation taken into consideration the complete algorithm looks as follows:
ETM- RS- MEFE – TMO- CR (6)
With MEFE standing for model of earthquake focus excitation
The scheme (6) is a complex model of aggregate algorithm of earthquake forecast.
It allows to understand mechanism of seismic focus excitation, mechanism of precursors emergence, stages of earthquake maturing which is necessary to build a reliable forecast. To control and totally avert earthquakes it is necessary to learn to control mechanisms of seismic energy input and output into and out of the seismic focus of its excitation. If we can learn to output this energy before emergency of resonance situation we can achieve total control and prevention of earthquakes. More than that, seismic energy withdrawn from the focuses can be generated and used as cheap and environmentally clean electric power. So the seismic belt of the Earth can serve as a source of cheap and environmentally safe electric power.
So, summarizing the above said basing on our researches [1-7], we suggest model of algorithm to calculate earthquake forecast.
Therotic Foundation of Dynavic (Reasonance) Earthquake Model
We have designed Cosmic Space project in ANAKA (Azerbaijan National Air Space Agency) which discusses these problems in detail [1-7]. We have given all basic conceptual principles of the resonance theory, have developed the model of seismic focus and mechanism of its excitation in this project. It was determined and this mechanism can be put into operation provided that all necessary and sufficient conditions are available. We have developed basic criteria for these conditions. The resonance mechanism is put into operation under following conditions.
- emerging of a resonance situation -RS
- putting into operation on one of the resonance spots due to coincidence of their frequencies.
- practical realization of the calculation theory of the trigger mechanism.
The first criteria is necessary condition for generation of a resonance situation, it emerges in case 4 factors are present (A, B,C, D). The second criteria is sufficient condition to put trigger mechanism into operation provided that frequencies in one and the same resonance spots coincide . It can emerge only under resonance situation. See Fig. 1, 2. Practical realization of the calculation technique can be implemented only provided that all required statistical data has been collected and their results mathematically processed.
The first stage of development of the earthquakes resonance mechanism theory allows to give a reliable forecast of earthquakes. At he second stage of development, or provided that full understanding of these processes is achieved, we shall be able to control these disturbances and prevent them.
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