Predicting and simulating future landuse pattern: A case study of Seremban district

Predicting and simulating future landuse pattern: A case study of Seremban district

SHARE

Shamsaini Shamsuddin
Department of Town and Regional Planning
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Malaysia
Email: [email protected]

Ahris Yaakup
Department of Town and Regional Planning
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Malaysia
Email: [email protected]

ABSTRACT
As long as rapid urbanization which is a result of natural population growth and rural urban migration due to push and pull factors of social and economic conditions as well as the moving of urban populations from major city centres to urban fringe areas due to changing lifestyle which emphasized on spacious and more comfortable and environmentally friendly living environment continue to happen; towns and cities will continue to grow and expand to accommodate the growing and complex demand of the people. Experiences have shown that rapid and uncontrolled expansion of towns and cities has led to amongst others the deterioration in the quality of urban environment and sprawling of urban development onto prime agricultural and forest areas as well as cities starting to lose their identity. In order to avoid such phenomena continuing to happen, particularly in the Kuala Lumpur Conurbation Area, towns and cities need to be properly planned and managed so that their growth or expansion can be controlled and managed in a sustainable manner. This will then hinder the land and property values and environmental quality to further decline and deteriorate. One of the strategies adopted to curb sprawling development is through the delineation of urban growth or development limits. This means that the limit of towns and cities need to be studied and identified, so that urban development can be directed to areas which are identified and specified suitable for such development. In such a manner, prime agricultural and forest areas as well as other environmentally sensitive area can be protected. It is hoped that such management tool can spur moderately to higher densities, eventually achieving a more efficient and livable communities. Delineating the urban growth limit (UGL) has been included as an important task in the preparation of development plans. With such policy a research study is now being carried out to develop a spatial modelling framework towards delineating UGL through the application and integration of spatial technologies and this will be a basis or framework for land use planners, managers and policy makers to formulate urban land use policies and monitor urban land use development. This paper highlights the integration of statistical modeling technique via logistic regression analysis and with GIS technology in understanding and predicting urban growth pattern and area as applied to District of Seremban, Negeri Sembilan. The result shows that urban land use change in the study area within the study period are significantly related to more than half of the predictors used in the analysis.